Current SETI forecast, MJO condition, and observed temperatures in Central Chile
This is the last figure generated for the SETI forecast. Normally, this figure is updated once a day. If the figure is outdated, it might be due to data download issues (corrupt files) or calculation problems at the corresponding node.
The top panel shows SETI – the standardized extra-tropical index, representing mid-latitude circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere over the SW Indian Ocean every 6h. SETI is regarded as a potential precursor of summer heat waves in Central Chile (Jacques-Coper et al., 2021). The vertical dashed line separates the GFS analysis for the previous 21 days (blue curve, to its left) from GEFS forecasts for the next 16 days (to its right). The GEFS-based SETI forecast comprises 20 ensemble members (orange curves) and the GEFS ensemble mean (red curve), and the operational GFS run (green curve). The operational run is performed at a higher spatial resolution and generally used in many online GFS charts and maps.
In the lower panel, colour circles indicate the observed phase and amplitude of the Wheeler and Hendon index of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO; Wheeler & Hendon, 2004). MJO is the main mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and represents a further potential precursor of summer heat waves in Central Chile (Jacques-Coper et al., 2021).
Finally, red, blue, and green curves show maximum (Tx), mean (
For more information on how to interpret these figures, please refer to the “Instructions” tab.
Disclaimer: Please note that these products are for experimental use and do not represent official forecasts issued by any public or private institution.
Contact: Christian Segura (chseguraguzman@gmail.com), Martín Jacques Coper (martinjacques@udec.cl).
SETI analysis GFS
Here you can explore the past values of SETI.
Current SETI forecast (GFS)
Here you can explore the current forecast values of SETI. Use the time selector at the bottom to zoom in/out the time series.
SETI stands for standardized extra-tropical index and measures mid-latitude circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere over the SW Indian Ocean every 6h. SETI is regarded as a potential precursor of summer heat waves in Central Chile ( Jacques-Coper et al., 2021 ).The time series corresponds to GFS analysis for the previous 21 days (blue curve, to its left) and GEFS forecasts for the next 16 days (to its right). The GEFS-based SETI forecast comprises 20 ensemble members (orange curves) and the GEFS ensemble mean (red curve), and the operational GFS run (green curve). The operational run is performed at a higher spatial resolution and generally used in many online GFS charts and maps.
For more information on how to interpret these figures, please refer to the “Instructions” tab.
Disclaimer: Please note that these products are for experimental use and do not represent official forecasts issued by any public or private institution.
Data sources:
- GEFS forecasts: geopotential height fields at 500 hPa (Z500) from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) from NOAA / National Weather Service, USA, are accessed at https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/ .Central Chile Temperature forecast (GFS)
South Central Chile Temperature forecast (GFS)
For more information on how to interpret these figures, please refer to the “Instructions” tab.
Disclaimer: Please note that these products are for experimental use and do not represent official forecasts issued by any public or private institution.